Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey)

Sönmez A. Y. , Kale S.

JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, vol.11, pp.420-433, 2020 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 11
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.2166/wcc.2018.060
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Geobase, Veterinary Science Database
  • Page Numbers: pp.420-433
  • Keywords: climate change, Pettitt change-point analysis, streamflow, trend analysis, CHANGE IMPACTS, WATER-RESOURCES, CHANGE-POINT, BASIN, DISCHARGE, MODEL, CATCHMENTS, REGIME
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Affiliated: Yes


The main purpose of this study was to estimate possible climate change effects on the annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Data for annual streamflow and climatic parameters were obtained from streamflow gauging stations on the river and Bartin, Karabuk, Zonguldak meteorological observation stations. Time series analysis was performed on 46 years of annual streamflow data and 57 years of annual mean climatic data from three monitoring stations to understand the trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied to determine the change time and trend analysis was performed to forecast trends. To reveal the relationship between climatic parameters and streamflow, correlation tests, namely, Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau were applied. The results of Pettitt change-point analysis pointed to 2000 as the change year for streamflow. Change years for temperature and precipitation were detected as 1997 and 2000, respectively. Trend analysis results indicated decreasing trends in the streamflow and precipitation, and increasing trend in temperature. These changes were found statistically significant for streamflow (p < 0.05) and temperature (p < 0.01). Also, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlation was found between streamflow and precipitation. In conclusion, decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature as a result of climate change initiated a decrease in the river streamflow.