Analysis of drought intensity spatial characteristics in Turkey using the Moran spatial autocorrelation coefficient


Serkendiz H., Tatlı H., Özcan H., Öztürk B.

TÜCAUM 2022 International Geography Symposium, İstanbul, Turkey, 12 - 14 October 2022, vol.1, pp.200-210

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 1
  • City: İstanbul
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.200-210
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Drought is an insidious natural hazard that occurs in almost all climate types. Furthermore, the consequences of drought are closely related to the vulnerability of the region/society in which it occurs. Drought vulnerability is based on both biophysical and socioeconomic factors. In order to understand drought vulnerability, it may be a good idea to first examine the physical and spatial characteristics of drought. In this regard, the intensity, and spatial characteristics of the drought phenomenon in Turkey were investigated in this study using historical observation data. To begin, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index values were calculated using monthly temperature and precipitation data from 221 weather stations spread across Turkey. Drought intensities are then calculated using the Run Theory approach using these values. Finally, the Local Moran's Index, a spatial autocorrelation method, was used to examine the spatial characteristics of drought intensity. According to the findings, 61 weather stations have significant spatial clustering, while 160 have insignificant spatial clustering. Statistically, 24 of these 61 stations are highly significant (p = 0.01). Furthermore, the high-high cluster (low drought density) is in northwest Turkey, according to the cluster map of Local-Moran autocorrelation coefficient. The low-low cluster (high drought density) is spatially dispersed in Anatolia's western, southern, and central regions. In the remaining regions, no statistically significant cluster has been identified