A Revisit of Tourism And Growth Nexus In The Provinces Of China Based On Bootstrap Panel Causality Test With A Fourier Function

Chang T., Yılancı V., Wang M., Mın J.

ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING, vol.27, no.4, pp.46-59, 2024 (SSCI)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 27 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Journal Name: ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EconLit
  • Page Numbers: pp.46-59
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, we collect annual data for 30 regions in China using tourism receipts and gross

domestic product over the period of 1980-2020. Empirical results from Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto

Granger Causality test with a Fourier function, which consider both cross-sectional dependence

and multiple smooth breaks, support the evidence of feedback hypothesis in most of the regions

except for Jilin that we find the validity of tourism-led-growth hypothesis, Shanxi, and Qinghai

where we find the supportive evidence of growth-led-tourism hypothesis, and for Gansu, Ningxia,

and Xinjiang where we find the strong evidence of neutrality hypothesis. These results further

show the importance of incorporating cross-sectional dependence and smooth breaks in testing

the Granger causality. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the regional

governments in China conducting tourism policy to sustain its regional economic growth.