Will Danford's Lizard Become Extinct in the Future?

KIRAÇ A., Mert A.

POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, vol.28, no.3, pp.1741-1748, 2019 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 28 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2019
  • Doi Number: 10.15244/pjoes/89894
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.1741-1748
  • Keywords: climate change, lizard, MaxEnt, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Affiliated: Yes


Climate change created predominantly by burning fossil fuels leads to increased pressure on biodiversity. It may cause extinction in lizard species over the forthcoming years. Lizard species that are unable to adjust rapidly enough to the ecological alterations due to climate change are particularly under threat. Therefore, vulnerable lizard species should be monitored and adopt climate change scenarios. This study examines the changes in the habitats of Danford's lizard (Anatololacerta danfordi) according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (HADGEM2-ES) climate scenarios. We modelled the current habitat preferences of A. danfordi using the MaxEnt method based on the bioclimatic features derived from Worldclim. Our results showed that A. danfordi prefers habitats with the bioclimate features including 12 mm for precipitation of driest month, 1-2 degrees C for mean temperature of wettest quarter, -4 degrees C for min temperature of coldest month, and 600 mm for annual precipitation. We determined the potential distributions of the A. danfordi using the model and GIS facilities for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. In conclusion, the potential habitats of this lizard species may be dramatically influenced from two climate scenarios. We envisage that the suitable habitats may be mostly relocated from the south toward the north. A. danfordi may not adapt this rapid change and may not migrate to new suitable locations within this short period. Therefore, governments should make provisions against climate change without delay.