The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye


Yiğitbaş Ş.

İZMIR JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, cilt.40, sa.1, ss.117-131, 2025 (Hakemli Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 40 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.24988/ije.1478357
  • Dergi Adı: İZMIR JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Directory of Open Access Journals, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.117-131
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables (credit growth, financial depth), economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.