Estimation of healthcare expenditure per capita of Turkey using artificial intelligence techniques with genetic algorithm-based feature selection

Ceylan Z., Atalan A.

Journal of Forecasting, cilt.40, sa.2, ss.279-290, 2021 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 40 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/for.2747
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Forecasting
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Compendex, EconLit, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, vLex, zbMATH
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.279-290
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: artificial intelligence, genetic algorithm-based feature selection, healthcare expenditure per capita, optimization, prediction
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict healthcare expenditure per capita (pcHCE) in Turkey. Well-known AI techniques such as random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and relevance vector machine (RVM) were used to forecast pcHCE. Twenty-nine years of historical data from 1990 to 2018 were used in the training and testing phases of the models. Gross domestic product per capita, life expectancy at birth, unemployment rate, crude birth rate, and the number of physicians and hospitals were used as input variables for the analysis. A genetic algorithm-based feature selection (GAFS) method was applied to all models to select the relevant and optimal feature subset in the prediction of pcHCE. The comparative results showed that the GAFS method improved the overall performance of all base AI models. The hybrid GAFS-RF model performed best among all AI-based prediction methods, with a 99.86% correlation of determination (R2) value at the testing stage.