Black Carbon Dynamics in BASIC Nations: Re-examining EKC and Pollution Hypotheses with a Novel Structural-Break Cointegration Test

Yılancı V., Mike F., Kongkuah M.

ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING, sa.Forthcoming, ss.1-30, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Dergi Adı: ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Pharma Collection (ProQuest), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Geobase
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-30
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study investigates the determinants of black carbon emissions in Brazil, China,

India, and South Africa (BASIC) over the 1980–2022 period, specifically focusing on

economic growth, foreign direct investment, and coal consumption. Although black

carbon remains in the atmosphere for a substantially shorter duration than

conventional greenhouse gases, it exerts disproportionately severe impacts on global

warming and public health; nevertheless, it remains underexamined within the

environmental economics literature. To address this gap, this research re-evaluates

the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) alongside the Pollution Haven and Pollution

Halo hypotheses within a unified analytical framework. The primary methodological

contribution of this study lies in proposing a novel cointegration test that

accommodates structural breaks, which are frequently encountered in environmental

economics literature, and yields more robust results in the presence of non-normally

distributed error terms. The empirical findings reveal pronounced heterogeneity in the

development and pollution trajectories of the BASIC countries. Regarding black

carbon emissions, the EKC hypothesis is validated solely for China, whereas in the

other nations, economic growth alone has not yet reached a turning point to induce

emission reductions. The findings for the foreign direct investment confirms the

Pollution Haven hypothesis for China, while evidence supporting the Pollution Halo

hypothesis is observed in Brazil and South Africa. Furthermore, coal consumption

emerges as one of the primary drivers of black carbon emissions in China, India, and

South Africa, whereas Brazil deviates from this trend owing to its distinct energy

composition. Ultimately, these findings indicate that rather than employing a one-

size-fits-all strategy for black carbon mitigation, it is essential to design regime-

sensitive environmental policies tailored to the specific developmental stage and

energy profile of each country.