Geopolitical Risk and Türkiye's Tourism Growth: Testing a Shifting Relationship

Ursavaş U., Yılancı V., Ghosh S.

ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, vol.59, no.1, pp.1-16, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 59 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Journal Name: ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, EconLit, INSPEC, zbMATH
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-16
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

 This study analyses the relationship between tourism and economic growth in Türkiye, taking a novel approach by considering the impact of geopolitical risk. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2022, we disaggregate tourism markets based on countries' geopolitical risk levels.  By employing a fuzzy clustering technique, we reveal how the tourism-growth nexus varies across different geopolitical risk clusters. Furthermore, we utilise Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto Causality test to analyse the causal relationship across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Our findings reveal a consistent tourism-led growth pattern in all countries regardless of geopolitical risk, highlighting the significant role of tourism in the Turkish economy. However, the study uncovers crucial nuances within the tourism-growth relationship, demonstrating a feedback effect in the short run and varying causal relationships across different time horizons. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly incorporating geopolitical risk into the analysis of tourism-led growth, providing valuable insights for policy makers in Türkiye.