From safe-haven to industrial driver: The influence of gold and precious metals on manufacturing growth in Türkiye

Kazak H., Akcan A. T., KILIÇ C., Soyyigit S.

Borsa Istanbul Review, 2025 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.09.005
  • Dergi Adı: Borsa Istanbul Review
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Gold, Manufacturing growth, Manufacturing production, Precious metals, Wavelet coherence
  • Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study empirically analyzes the transformation of gold and precious metals from traditional safe-haven assets to industrial drivers in Türkiye, focusing on their effects on manufacturing growth for the period 2003M1–2025M2. Employing the Fourier-ARDL cointegration test, Fourier-Toda Yamamoto causality analysis, and Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WTC), we find a positive and significant long-term relationship between precious metal prices and manufacturing production (MPI). Inflation and crisis periods are shown to have negative effects on output. While causality tests reveal a unidirectional effect of gold price shocks on manufacturing growth, WTC analysis highlights the dynamic and time-varying nature of these relationships. The findings demonstrate that precious metals, beyond their traditional role as safe-havens, exert a multifaceted influence on real sector performance in Türkiye, offering important implications for policymakers and industrial strategy.