A statistical downscaling method for monthly total precipitation over Turkey


Tatli H. , Dalfes H., Mentes S.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, cilt.24, ss.161-180, 2004 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 24 Konu: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2004
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/joc.997
  • Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.161-180

Özet

Researchers are aware of certain types of problems that arise when modelling interconnections between general circulation and regional processes, such as prediction of regional, local-scale climate variables from large-scale processes, e.g. by means of general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The problem solution is called downscaling. In this paper, a statistical downscaling approach to monthly total precipitation over Turkey, which is an integral part of system identification for analysis of local-scale climate variables, is investigated. Based on perfect prognosis, a new computationally effective working method is introduced by the proper predictors selected from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets, which are simulated as perfectly as possible by GCMs during the period of 1961-98. The Sampson correlation ratio is used to determine the relationships between the monthly total precipitation series and the set of large-scale processes (namely 500 hPa geopotential heights, 700 hPa geopotential heights, sea-level pressures, 500 hPa vertical pressure velocities and 500-1000 hPa geopotential thicknesses). In the study, statistical preprocessing is implemented by independent component analysis rather than principal component analysis or principal factor analysis. The proposed downscaling method originates from a recurrent neural network model of Jordan that uses not only large-scale predictors, but also the previous states of the relevant local-scale variables. Finally, some possible improvements and suggestions for further study are mentioned. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.