Does currency denomination reverse the ageing-growth relationship?
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1080/13504851.2026.2730498
- Dergi Adı: APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Geobase, Public Affairs Index, Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Currency denomination of real GDP per capita reverses the ageing-growth coefficient sign in a panel of 81 Turkish provinces, 2009-2023 (N = 1,215). Province fixed-effects regressions using USD-denominated real income yield beta = -0.297 (p < 0.001); local-currency deflation reverses this to +0.070 (p < 0.001). First-difference (+0.044) and between-province (+0.213) estimators corroborate the reversal. The mechanism is the lira's 90% USD depreciation after 2017, creating a spurious common trend that province fixed effects cannot absorb. Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and an alternative ageing indicator (65+ population share) confirm the sign reversal across all specifications. Negative ageing-growth estimates from high-inflation economies may partly reflect this measurement artefact rather than genuine demographic drag.