Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. QUARTERLY JOURNAL A JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, APPLIED METEOROLOGY, AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.8-21, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Rapid-onset meteorological hazards (ROMHs) — such as flash droughts, con-vective windstorms, and cold surges — pose critical challenges to forecastingdue to their abrupt onset, nonlinear behavior, and cascading societal impacts.This study introduces the Early Warning System Integrated (EWSI) model,a four-dimensional nonlinear dynamical framework designed to anticipateROMHs through emergent system behavior. EWSI integrates four interactingstate variables — Weather Sensitivity (WS), Recovery Capacity (RC), ThreatPropagation Potential (TPP), and Behavioral Tendency Index (BTI) — each gov-erned by coupled differential equations driven by a composite atmospheric forc-ing derived from 11 reanalysis-based predictors. The model simulates hallmarkfeatures of complex systems including critical slowing down, hysteresis, andbifurcation, generating a continuous, interpretable risk index for early-warningapplications. Using synthetic forcing scenarios, EWSI successfully anticipatesheatwaves, convective storms, and compound cold-wave events, with lead timesranging from three to 60 hours. The model produces sharp, calibrated fore-casts (Brier Score = 0.13), and negative Lyapunov exponents confirm its internaldynamical stability. Sensitivity analysis identifies RC-related parameters as pri-mary drivers of risk amplification, underscoring the importance of resiliencedynamics. EWSI provides a computationally efficient, modular, and inter-pretable platform that links nonlinear dynamics to operational meteorology.It offers a pathway to integrate early-warning signals into anticipatory haz-ard management, supporting climate-resilient decision-making in vulnerableregions.
Keywords: Atmospheric stability, early-warning systems, nonlinear dynamics, probabilistic forecasting,rapid-onset hazards, risk index