Modeling future land use/land cover dynamics in Ayvacık District (Çanakkale, Türkiye) using a CA-Markov Model Ayvacık İlçesi'nde (Çanakkale, Türkiye) Gelecekteki arazi kullanımı/arazi örtüsü dinamiklerinin CA-Markov modeli kullanılarak modellenmesi
Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University, cilt.63, sa.3, ss.385-401, 2026 (Scopus, TRDizin)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 63 Sayı: 3
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.20289/zfdergi.1971871
- Dergi Adı: Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.385-401
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Ayvacık, CA-Markov, land change modeling, land use/land cover, TerrSet
- Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Objective: This study aims to model the future land-use/land-cover dynamics in the Ayvacık District of Çanakkale Province and evaluate possible spatial transformation trends for 2040 within an ecological planning framework. Materials and Methods: A Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN)-supported Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was used to simulate future land-use dynamics and to generate a land-use/land-cover map for 2040. Results: Approximately 56% of the study area experienced LULC change during the study period. Settlement areas, transportation infrastructure, industrial and commercial areas, and mining areas increased, whereas maquis, pastures, and other semi-natural landscape elements declined. The 2040 simulation indicated that these trends are likely to continue, with further expansion of settlement areas, secondary road networks, and water bodies; agricultural lands, olive groves, pastures, and semi-natural landscapes are likely to remain under transformation pressure. Conclusion: The findings suggest that land-use changes in Ayvacık are driven by both environmental conditions and socio-economic factors, including tourism development, transportation investments, and rural economic transformations. The study provides valuable information for sustainable land management, ecological planning, and future decision-making processes.